Rabobank: Aquaculture faces volatile H2 2025, but supply fundamentals remain strong.
The global aquaculture industry is expected to experience continued volatility in the second half of 2025, according to Rabobank analysts Novel Sharma and Gorjan Nikolik. US trade policy uncertainty and inflationary pressure are likely to impact consumer demand, particularly for high-value farmed species such as salmon and shrimp.
Exporters may increasingly shift focus to more stable markets like the EU, as elevated US tariffs dampen purchasing power. Global salmon production is projected to expand, supported by a strong recovery in Chile, while Norway may face biological and environmental constraints.
Feed markets may provide some relief. Peru’s anchovy quota, the highest in seven years, is expected to support strong fishmeal and fish oil availability. Although soymeal prices are declining, aquaculture demand — particularly from salmon farming — may keep fishmeal prices above historical averages, offering modest margin support despite broader market pressures.