DNB Carnegie sees dip in global salmon demand as US tariffs take effect.
The introduction of a 15 percent US tariff on Norwegian goods, including salmon, is likely to dampen global demand and depress prices, according to an update from DNB Carnegie on Friday.
The investment bank said it expects a two percent decline in global salmon demand following the implementation of the tariff, which takes effect on 7 August. This is projected to reduce the spot price of salmon by approximately NOK 2/kg.
“Assuming that US consumers will not spend more on salmon after the tariff than before, we estimate that global demand will fall by two percent,” DNB Carnegie wrote. While the tariff announcement was confirmed by the White House late Thursday, the firm noted that the decision had been signalled since March and was already factored into its sector outlook.
Under the new structure, Norwegian salmon will face a 15 percent tariff, while UK and potentially Chilean producers are expected to see a 10 percent duty. Canada remains exempt from tariffs on salmon under the USMCA trade agreement until at least April 2026, though the brokerage warned of possible downside risk if the exemption is not extended.
“In total, we estimate a mixed tariff of 9.5 percent on salmon to the US market if the current tariffs come into effect,” DNB Carnegie stated.
The bank said it does not expect significant short-term movement in equity prices, noting that tariff exposure is likely to generate indirect effects across the industry rather than targeting individual firms.
“Which company has the highest/lowest exposure to the US becomes less relevant, as there will be spillover effects. For example, if a company with high US exposure has to redirect its products to other markets (such as the EU), it will affect companies selling to these non-US markets,” the note said. “We believe that it is largely reflected and well known in the market.”
