New price lift for salmon: Up 40 percent in eight weeks.
Another week of rising salmon prices is expected: “Not much, but it’s going up one to two kroner. I’m hearing NOK 69–70 ($6.90–$7.00/€5.93–€6.02) for 3–4 kg, NOK 71–72 ($7.10–$7.20/€6.11–€6.19) for 4–5 kg, and NOK 74–75 ($7.40–$7.50/€6.36–€6.45) for 5–6 kg – both north and south,” an exporter told SalmonBusiness.
This marks the seventh consecutive week of price increases. The rise is primarily due to reduced fish supply from Norway.
Less freezing
But the outlook is not entirely clear. Speculative purchases of fish for freezing are less attractive at NOK 70 ($7.00/€6.02) than they were at NOK 50 ($5.00/€4.30).
“Freezing activity has stopped. And not least, the currency situation – the dollar is weakening quite a lot,” the exporter said.
Others are already showing caution after the rapid rise in salmon prices.
“We have set a limit for ourselves. If it goes above that, we stop. Transport is still difficult, and when the recoil comes, downward, it falls NOK 7–8 ($0.70–$0.80/€0.60–€0.69),” a buyer said.
“If the price is NOK 70, 72 and 75 ($7.00, $7.20 and $7.50/€6.02, €6.19 and €6.45) for 3–4, 4–5 and 5–6 kg respectively, if it goes higher than that, in our view the risk becomes too great. We hit the brakes if it exceeds that. Then we simply say no thanks,” he elaborated.
He has not bought anything yet.
“No, it’s usually around half past three before we reach the finish line. It’s almost like buying a house – we set a limit and stick to it.”
Price difference
A farmer has already sold at higher prices than these:
“NOK 75, 77 and 79 ($7.50, $7.70 and $7.90/€6.45, €6.62 and €6.79) for 3–6 kg. There are NOK 2 ($0.20/€0.17) in transport costs in the north, it’s no longer NOK 1 ($0.10/€0.09) to Oslo,” he noted.
He also observed that purchases for freezing have stopped.
“I guess freezing ended last week, but I’m generally optimistic about the market. Norwegian supply is going down, as we can see, but more is coming from Chile. I think the European market can live its own life, where the price difference between Norway and Chile could become relatively large,” he predicted.
A large-scale farmer is seeing even higher prices.
“Oslo prices for 3–4 kg at NOK 77–78 ($7.70–$7.80/€6.62–€6.71), 4–5 kg at NOK 81–82 ($8.10–$8.20/€6.97–€7.05), and 5–6 kg around NOK 85 ($8.50/€7.31).”
“Can you sell at those levels?”
“Yes, absolutely.”
“For 6+ kg going by air, it’s NOK 100 ($10.00/€8.60). Then we’re uncertain about what Europe is paying, but it’s clear there won’t be a lot of large fish next week. I’d say 2–3 kg is at NOK 69–70 ($6.90–$7.00/€5.93–€6.02),” he added.
