Manolin analysis urges long-term view of Scotland’s salmon survival rates.
Data platform Manolin has published an analysis by Tony Chen arguing that Scotland’s 61.8 percent survival rate for the 2022 year-class, highlighted in the latest Fish Farm Production Survey, reflects a point in a longer biological cycle rather than a clear indicator of sector decline or improvement.
Mortality in Scotland now at highest level in decades – industry responds
Chen notes that salmon farming operates on 18-month biological timelines, meaning cumulative mortality provides a more accurate picture than monthly figures cited by both industry and welfare groups. Manolin’s aggregated data shows cumulative mortality rising above 40 percent in 2023 and early 2024 before returning to around 23 percent by mid-2025, suggesting a full cycle of stress and recovery.
Historic records show similar fluctuations driven by regulatory change, reduced antibiotic use, shifts in lice control methods and tighter environmental limits. Chen also points to Scotland’s narrow margins, which constrain reinvestment in health and welfare infrastructure.
He argues that the headline survival figure should be read as part of a multi-decade dataset rather than a standalone verdict, with the full analysis available on Manolin’s site.
