The market is tightening noticeably for the first December salmon.
“85+,” an aquaculture producer writes in a text message to SalmonBusiness.
“I believe in NOK 85 ($8.33/€7.23) on 3–6kg. Over 6kg is uncertain,” another producer says of next week’s salmon price.
That would mean a price increase of NOK 9–10 ($0.88–$0.98/€0.77–€0.85) compared with last Friday.
Shortfall
“This week’s target price of NOK 85–86 ($8.33–$8.43/€7.23–€7.31) delivered Oslo has been reached,” a third producer says.
“Next week’s price is over eight euros on 3–6kg for delivery in Northern Europe, meaning everywhere north of the Netherlands, Germany, Poland, the Baltics. That corresponds to NOK 90 ($8.82/€7.65) to the producer.”
He is an unreserved optimist for Christmas trading.
“December this year will be completely different from last December, when slaughter continued until 17–18 December. This year we start with a shortfall, volumes will be lower than last year and we have a special Christmas with few slaughter days.
“There has been extremely high harvesting at low average weights, and it will be interesting to watch as we move into Q1 and Q2. And let Chile be Chile,” he adds, referring to high biomass levels there.
Divergent
Exporters, traders and importers are indicating somewhat lower prices than those flagged by producers. But no one disputes that the price trend is clearly upwards.
“NOK 79, 80 and 81 ($7.74, $7.84, $7.94/€6.72, €6.80, €6.89) for 3–4kg, 4–5kg and 5kg+. We haven’t started buying yet, but that’s what we are seeing from customers and producers. Producers want above this, customers want below. Maybe it meets somewhere in the middle,” an exporter says.
“I’ve heard slightly divergent price estimates, but expectations are high. Next week looks to be one of the better ones before Christmas – NOK 82, 84, 86 ($8.04, $8.23, $8.43/€6.97, €7.14, €7.31) and maybe a bit higher. At the same time, 5–7kg is still under pressure,” another says.
Talking up the market
“Prices rose at the end of the week. Some want to talk it up. But the market isn’t there. You know industry is almost done producing for Christmas. Producers say we need well above NOK 80 ($7.84/€6.80), but I don’t believe that. If it rises too much today, it will go straight down again,” a third says.
“We bought at NOK 75 ($7.35/€6.38) this week, so it’s a few kroner up. I guess 3kg+ will be NOK 80 ($7.84/€6.80) next week to the producer. We’ve bought a little at that. And it looks like customers will accept it,” he adds.
The majority of salmon trading today is occurring in the “spread” between NOK 80 and 85 ($7.84–$8.33/€6.80–€7.23) to producers.
“Let’s say somewhere in the middle. We’re betting on the low NOK 80s. And that’s what we’re hearing across the board,” a major exporter says.
“Demand isn’t that high, even if it has improved on last week. It’s not like we’re being flooded with calls. And now we move into weeks 49 and 50, which is the small Christmas sales window we have. In week 51 it’s Merry Christmas – nothing to expect.”
