Each week, Salmon Business gathers salmon price forecasts from industry analysts for the week ahead. Unless otherwise stated, prices refer to Superior 3–6 kg salmon, per kilo FCA Oslo, converted using the day’s average exchange rate.
Salmon price settles around EUR 8.41 as large fish weigh on market
The salmon spot price is trading around EUR 8.41 ($9.71) per kilo this week, based on analyst estimates published this week.
Normal-sized fish are trading at firmer levels, while larger sizes are weighing on the average. Fish above 7 kg are trading at a discount, reflecting a negative size premium.
Easter demand begins to lift export values
Weekly supply totalled 26,044 tonnes, down 3.7% year-on-year but up 2.9% week-on-week.
A more pronounced year-on-year decline in supply is expected in the coming weeks. In the comparable period last year, export volumes increased by approximately 3,000 tonnes from the current week through to weeks 14 and 15 ahead of Easter.
Weekly export value reached EUR 201 million, up 4.6% year-on-year and 11.4% week-on-week. With Easter falling earlier this year, seasonal demand is already reflected in current figures, with further strengthening expected as the holiday approaches.
Exports to key Asian markets, including China, Taiwan, Hong Kong, Vietnam and South Korea, are developing in line with expectations, with no visible disruption to volumes.
However, rising jet fuel prices are increasing airfreight costs, which are expected to reduce achievable salmon prices by between EUR 0.18 and EUR 0.36 per kilo in the short term.
Strong biology supports harvest weights
Biological conditions in the sea remain favourable, with harvest weights at record-high levels.
These conditions are expected to support supply volumes through the spring period.
The assessment is based on industry analyst forecasts published this week.