Prices fall as supply picks up after Easter.
Analysts expect Norwegian salmon to trade around EUR 6.61 (USD 7.81) per kilo next week, down from an estimated EUR 6.41–6.50 (USD 7.57–7.68) range this week. The current week saw a sharp drop from last week’s reported FCA spot price of roughly EUR 7.31 (USD 8.64), as supply volumes surged following the Easter holiday. Next week’s price is expected to hold roughly flat compared to this week, with the Barcelona Seafood Expo typically associated with softer pricing.
Norwegian exports in week 15 reached 26,555 tonnes, down 14.5% year on year but up 15.4% week on week, still reflecting some Easter distortion. Export value came in at EUR 186 million, down 3.1% year on year but up 7.5% week on week. On a rolling four-week basis, export value is up 5% year on year, suggesting improving demand. Supply appears to have picked up strongly this week, with tracking models indicating a run rate near 31,000 tonnes, a 17% increase week on week. Demand growth is primarily driven by Asia, particularly China, which largely offsets weaker US demand.
Sea temperatures in central and northern Norway remain favorable and are supporting strong growth conditions and higher harvest activity. Lice pressure is low, with only four sites above the threshold in week 15. Analysts note that solid biological productivity is unlikely to change in the near term, which puts downside risk on second-quarter consensus price estimates.
Each week, Salmon Business gathers salmon price forecasts from industry analysts for the week ahead. Unless otherwise stated, prices refer to Superior 3–6 kg salmon, per kilo FCA Oslo, converted using the day’s average exchange rate.