Chilean salmon productivity is weakening, with supply growth expected to turn negative from April, according to an analyst note from Arctic Securities.
The bank said key production indicators deteriorated in March. Average harvest weights in Chile were 4.86 kg, down 0.8% year on year and 3.6% month on month.
The number of fish in sea fell 1.7% year on year, compared with a 0.4% decline in February. Based on Kontali data, Arctic estimated biomass growth at the end of March at negative 3.2%.
Chilean harvest volumes declined 10.7% year on year in March, while smolt stocking was down 8% year on year, pointing to a weaker medium-term supply outlook.
Arctic said Chilean productivity had been strong over the past year, but March data suggested that trend was now reversing. Mortality was also marginally higher year on year.
The bank forecasts Chilean supply growth for the remainder of 2026 at between negative 2% and negative 3% year on year.
Tighter Chilean supply would be supportive for global salmon prices, Arctic said, with less volume expected to reach the market in coming months.
The next data point for the market will be April harvest volumes, which Arctic expects to confirm the shift to negative supply growth.