Prices bounce back after a soft week.
Analysts expect Norwegian salmon prices for next week to hold at around EUR 7.60 (USD 8.90) per kilo, flat week-on-week after a sharp rebound from last week’s reported spot price of approximately EUR 6.59 (USD 7.71). The current week saw prices jump by roughly EUR 0.92 (USD 1.07) per kilo compared to the prior week. Both analyst sources converge on a stable outlook for week 19, as the market transitions from a shortened four-day harvesting week back to a full week.
Norwegian export volumes in week 17 came in at 28,222 tonnes, up 3.9% year-on-year but down 6.7% from the previous week. Demand for Norwegian salmon totalled EUR 182 million last week, representing declines of 2.7% year-on-year and 6.7% week-on-week. Export value in EUR fell approximately 5% year-on-year. Asia continues to support demand, with continued growth to China. Analysts noted that average harvest weights in the spot market have dropped from around 5.0 kg to 4.7 kg over recent weeks, suggesting slower productivity that could tighten supply ahead. Tracking data indicates all three major Norwegian farmers have harvested substantially more so far in Q2, even as their volume guidance implies no growth from Q2 through Q4.
Sea lice levels remain low across Norway. However, under the current lower lice limit, five sites were above the threshold in week 17, down from eleven sites the previous week. The May 1st holiday contributed to reduced supply this week, and analysts note that reports from across the Norwegian coast suggest less fish is currently available for harvest.
Each week, SalmonBusiness gathers salmon price forecasts from industry analysts for the week ahead. Unless otherwise stated, prices refer to Superior 3–6 kg salmon, per kilo FCA Oslo, converted using the day’s average exchange rate.