Prices expected to drop sharply into week 20.
Prices are expected to ease into week 20, according to analysts, who forecast Norwegian salmon prices at around EUR 6.94 (USD 8.13) per kilo next week, down from an estimated EUR 7.21 (USD 8.45) this week. The decline of roughly EUR 0.27 (USD 0.32) per kilo reflects somewhat higher volumes entering the market and softer seasonal demand in May and June, though the four-day trading week could lend some support later in the period as volumes are cleared ahead of the weekend.
Norwegian salmon exports in week 18 totalled 26,521 tonnes, down 6% both year on year and week on week. Despite lower volumes, export value in EUR rose 12% year on year, while the four-week rolling export value increased 5.8%. Demand for Norwegian salmon reached EUR 190 million, up 7.6% year on year and 3.9% week on week. Polish imports climbed 46% year on year and Chinese imports increased 28–31%, pointing to continued strength in retail channels while foodservice demand remains softer. Norwegian Seafood Council figures showed April export volumes up 1% year on year, with export value in EUR rising 3%.
Currency movements and feed costs are also adding pressure. A stronger Norwegian krone is reducing exporter returns, while Peruvian anchovy catches remain at around 23% of quota, tightening fish meal and fish oil markets. Analysts said feed prices could continue to rise if supply conditions remain constrained.
Each week, SalmonBusiness gathers salmon price forecasts from industry analysts for the week ahead. Unless otherwise stated, prices refer to Superior 3–6 kg salmon, per kilo FCA Oslo, converted using the day’s average exchange rate.