Arctic Securities has cut its 2026 EBIT estimate for Grieg Seafood by 17% following a first-quarter profit warning, maintaining a Hold recommendation with a target price of NOK 80 (€7.20) per share, compared to a current share price of NOK 72.4 (€6.52).
The downgrade reflects weaker biological performance, with mechanical delousing combined with cold seawater reducing the share of superior-grade fish to 60%. Arctic estimates the combined impact at NOK 74 million (€6.66 million), driven by a NOK 4/kg (€0.36/kg) reduction in price realisation and a NOK 4/kg (€0.36/kg) increase in costs in Q1, followed by a NOK 1/kg (€0.09/kg) cost increase in Q2. Grieg has guided for a negative EBIT impact of NOK 50–75 million (€4.50–6.75 million), with most of the effect in the first quarter.
Arctic now forecasts EBIT/kg of NOK 18 (€1.62) for Grieg’s Rogaland operations in 2026, below an average of NOK 24/kg (€2.16/kg) for 2022–2025. First-quarter price realisation of NOK 85.7/kg (€7.71/kg) also came in below the NOK 89/kg (€8.01/kg) previously assumed.
Harvest guidance of 31,000 tonnes for 2026 is unchanged, although Arctic flagged execution risk. The firm expects a recovery from the third quarter, with EBIT/kg projected at NOK 25 (€2.25/kg) in 2027 as biological performance normalises.
The valuation implies a dividend-adjusted P/E of 17x for 2026, falling to 10.5x in 2027, with the Rogaland operations valued at NOK 237/kg (€21.33/kg) alongside adjustments for processing assets and central costs, according to Arctic Securities.