Bakkafrost delivered a first-quarter EBIT result 8% above market consensus, prompting SEB to raise its target price to NOK 475 (€44.18) from NOK 465 (€43.25), while maintaining its rating unchanged, according to a note published by analyst Sander Lie on May 19.
Operational EBIT came in 9% above SEB’s own estimate and 8% ahead of consensus expectations. Farming operations in the Faroe Islands performed in line with forecasts, while Scotland was slightly weaker than expected. Strong contributions from non-farming segments, particularly fish oil and fishmeal, offset the softer Scottish performance.
Standing biomass increased 13% year-on-year despite high harvest volumes during the quarter. Biomass in the Faroe Islands alone rose 30% year-on-year, which SEB described as the more important indicator.
SEB increased its 2026–2028 harvest volume forecasts by 2,000–3,000 tonnes following updated company guidance and stronger Faroe Islands growth. Cost estimates were also revised slightly higher for both regions.
The revisions resulted in SEB increasing its 2026–2028 EBIT forecasts by 1–3%. The bank now sits 1% above pre-Q1 FactSet consensus for 2026 and broadly in line with consensus for 2027.
With Bakkafrost trading at 17–13x estimated 2026–2027 earnings per share and dividend yields of 3–5%, SEB said the stock’s risk-reward profile appears balanced at current levels and argued there is stronger relative value elsewhere in the salmon sector.
Scotland remains the key factor for further rerating, according to the note. SEB said the Q1 report provided limited evidence of operational improvement there and warned that execution risk remains through the second half of the year.
The bank argued that any meaningful multiple expansion would require clearer progress in Scotland, which has yet to materialise.
Bakkafrost shares were trading at NOK 452.4 (€42.07) at the time of the note.