Bakkafrost delivered a Q1 EBIT beat of 8% against Street consensus, prompting SEB to raise its target price to NOK 475 (from NOK 465) — but the bank held its rating unchanged, according to a note published by analyst Sander Lie on May 19.
Operational EBIT came in 9% ahead of SEB’s own estimate and 8% ahead of consensus. Faroe Islands farming met expectations; Scotland came in slightly below. A strong non-farming quarter — fish oil and fishmeal in particular — offset the Scottish shortfall.
Standing biomass rose 13% year-on-year despite a high harvest volume. Faroe Islands biomass alone was up 30% year-on-year, which SEB called the more significant data point.
SEB lifted its 2026–28 volume forecasts by 2–3k tonnes following Bakkafrost’s updated guidance and stronger Faroe Islands growth. Cost assumptions were also nudged higher for both regions. The net effect: 2026–28E EBIT rises 1–3%, leaving SEB 1% above pre-Q1 FactSet consensus for 2026 and in line for 2027.
With Bakkafrost trading at 17–13x 2026–27E EPS and dividend yields of 3–5%, SEB argues risk/reward is balanced at current levels. The bank sees better relative value elsewhere in the sector.
Scotland remains the key derisking event. SEB said the Q1 report provided little evidence of improvement there, and flagged continued risk into the second half. Multiple expansion, the note argues, requires Scotland to improve — and that has yet to materialise.
The share price stood at NOK 452.4 at the time of the note.