A large volume of fish is being offered for sale, but tightening demand is driving the market upwards.
Last Friday, SalmonBusiness reported that the Christmas rush had begun, with prices rising by NOK 4–5 (NOK 4–5 = $0.40–0.50 / €0.34–0.43). Today, the price surge continues, with a significantly larger lift.
“The price has risen a few kroner this week. People are trying to push prices up aggressively, but there is still fish from this week that has been sold,” a trader said.
“Some customers say they simply cannot buy at these prices. The processing industry in Norway is slowing down sharply because there is no production-grade fish available. They have to use superior (‘sup’) grade, and they can’t afford that,” he told SalmonBusiness.
Nervous market
He pointed to the following prices for fish for delivery next week:
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2–3 kg: NOK 83 ($8.22 / €7.06)
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3–4 kg: NOK 90–91 ($8.91–9.00 / €7.65–7.74)
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4–5 kg: NOK 92–93 ($9.11–9.21 / €7.82–7.91), with some suggesting another krone or two on top.
This means prices have risen by nearly NOK 10 (NOK 10 = $0.99 / €0.85) over the past week.
“It has risen very fast. The industry is sceptical, though they always are. Some are talking about another five kroner. It is a nervous market, I would say. When prices move this much in such a short time, the market doesn’t settle,” he added.
It is the first time ever that salmon prices exceed NOK 90 (NOK 90 = $8.91 / €7.65) going into week 49. The rise comes on high volumes, as expected heading into the second-to-last full trading week before Christmas.
A lot in a short time
“We are in the 90s on the buy side, yes,” said one buyer, who recognised a price level between NOK 90 and 94 (NOK 90–94 = $8.91–9.31 / €7.65–7.99).
“That’s what the market wants, but whether we can actually buy at that level, I don’t know. There is quite a lot of fish and quite a lot of price movement over two weeks. We need to be careful not to pay more than the market does today. Everyone in processing is bleeding at these prices.”
All sources confirmed a substantial jump since last Friday.
“We have NOK 90, 92 and 93 ($8.91, 9.11, 9.21 / €7.65, 7.82, 7.91) in purchases. Deals have been done at those levels. It’s a solid increase. We end up between NOK 90 and 95 ($8.91–9.41 / €7.65–8.08) for everything. Next week should be fine, but the week after is the last one before the Christmas holidays affect scheduling,” one exporter said.
“We haven’t bought anything yet, but we expect to be able to trade around that level. I hear farmers’ expectations are sky-high, but we will probably have to moderate ourselves – because even if this is typically the best week before Christmas, there is also quite a lot of fish scheduled for slaughter,” another exporter said.
100 kroner?
Many farmers expect even higher prices.
“I don’t know who you are talking to, but I’m sure someone is mentioning NOK 100 (NOK 100 = $9.90 / €8.50) as well. But that’s not realistic.”
“I hear slightly higher numbers. Some are talking about NOK 100 in Oslo. We haven’t sold anything yet,” one farmer said.
Some have already reached the symbolic NOK 100 mark.
“We have reached it. One sale was ASC-certified, one was not. It was 5–6 [kg fish]. But right now the price differences between sizes are small,” another farmer said.
“Before that, it was NOK 95–98 ($9.41–9.70 / €8.08–8.33). When prices move upward this quickly and this high, then NOK 93 or 95 is just as accurate as NOK 100.”
He remains surprised by today’s price level.
“I would never have dreamed of prices well into the 90s in week 49. Soon it will only be the fresh market for Christmas. They cannot build inventory – whatever they need, they have to take immediately. Biology in Norway is excellent. Look at the average weights – we’re swimming in big fish,” he said.
