Biology trouble may cause volume declines in Chile this year

Aslak Berge

While conditions in Norway are favourable, the situation is looking quite different for the world’s second-largest salmon farming country, Chile.

With a 14 percent increase in feed sales in the first half of the year, according to Akvafakta, there will be a lot of salmon for sale during the autumn and winter. There are good growth conditions in the Norwegian fjords this year.

So far this year, Norway has exported 3.8 per cent more salmon than at the same time last year. But analysts say the risk is an upside.

Which is not so good for Norway’s main competitor, Chile.

“The biological situation seems to be worsening,” Sparebank1 analyst Tore A. Tønseth wrote in a recent analysis.

“Even with 14% more biomass, the Chileans are not able to get supply growth. Harvest weight at 4.87kg in June, 0.45kg (!) lower than in 2019. Sea lice level close to 2x a year ago. Our 0-growth scenario is becoming more realistic. Contraction is also starting to be possible, added Tønseth, describing the situation as “demanding”.

Tore A. Tønseth also pointed to the fact that even with significantly larger biomass in Chile, net biomass growth is ten per cent lower than in 2018. Tønseth’s source for this is Chilean analysis agency Aquabench.

Source: Aquabench

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