Chilean farmers emerge as cost leaders despite tariffs and oversupply, Rabobank analyst says.
Rabobank senior analyst Gorjan Nikolik reports that Chilean salmon producers are entering 2026 with a stronger outlook than expected, despite US tariff pressures and the effects of earlier Norwegian oversupply.
Nikolik, who recently returned from a visit to salmon operations in southern Chile, said favourable climatic conditions, improved biological performance and tighter cost control have positioned “most Chilean salmon farmers as global cost leaders in Atlantic salmon.”
He also highlighted the growing importance of coho, describing it as a “uniquely Chilean industry” with production costs “considerably lower” than those for Atlantic salmon. Coho exports, historically dependent on Japan, are now expanding into new markets. According to Nikolik, strong profitability is helping establish the species as a “key second leg” of Chile’s broader salmon sector.
Looking ahead, he said the global supply outlook supports a positive year: salmon supply is expected to remain tight in 2026, with Chile “virtually the only region with meaningful supply growth.”
