End of year best for salmon exports: Oversupply will soon be gone

Aslak Berge

Limited opportunities for high supply growth in the New Year.

Norwegian salmon exporters sent a total of 31,035 tonnes of salmon (converted to round weight) out of the country last week. It is the highest quantity this year.

The biggest buyers last week were located in Poland, France and the UK.

Accumulated salmon exports per week 50 amounted to 1,235,737 tonnes – up seven per cent from the same period last year. Salmon sales in particular have been boosted by a hectic fall.

The high harvest volumes in recent months have been hitting biomass.

Today, the Directorate of Fisheries reported that Norwegian salmon biomass at the end of November was estimated at 810,700 tonnes, only 0.6 per cent more than at the same time last year.

“Fourth consecutive month of lower biomass growth compared to last year. A combination of colder sea temperatures compared to last year and higher than normal lice pressure (= more treatments) are likely to be key causes,” wrote Carnegie analyst Lars Konrad Johnsen in a customer email on Thursday.

The standing biomass provides an indicator of which salmon harvest and sales volumes can be offered to the market in the coming months.

Over EUR 6 for six months
Carnegie expects volume growth of moderate 2.3 per cent from Norway in 2020.

“We see few reasons to change our assumptions for the coming year,” Johnsen continued.

The salmon exchange Fish Pool’s so-called forward price outlines a curve where the salmon price will remain well above the EUR 6 kilo mark until July 2020.


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