Arctic Securities has cut its 2026 EBIT estimate for Grieg Seafood by 57% to NOK 163 million (€15.2 million), while maintaining a Hold recommendation and lowering its target price to NOK 34 (€3.16) per share from NOK 37 (€3.44).
The downgrade follows the company’s weak first-quarter results and updated 2026 cost guidance of NOK 67/kg (€6.23/kg), around NOK 4/kg (€0.37/kg) above Arctic’s previous assumptions, according to analyst Christian Olsen Nordby.
Arctic said its revised forecasts now sit 62% below market consensus for 2026 and 32% below consensus for 2027.
The broker attributed the higher cost outlook primarily to challenging biological conditions in the company’s Rogaland farming operations, alongside rising fish feed prices. Arctic also raised its longer-term cost assumption to NOK 62/kg (€5.77/kg), NOK 2/kg (€0.19/kg) above the company’s own guidance.
Of Arctic’s full-year EBIT forecast of NOK 163 million (€15.2 million), NOK 130 million (€12.1 million) is expected to be generated in the fourth quarter, reflecting seasonally stronger salmon prices and the weak performance seen during the first half of 2026.
Arctic values Grieg’s Rogaland assets at NOK 227 EV/kg (€21.11 EV/kg), based on a long-term EBIT assumption of NOK 22.7/kg (€2.11/kg) and a 10x EV/EBIT multiple. The brokerage also assigns NOK 130 million (€12.1 million) of value to the company’s value-added processing facility.
Nordby noted that most recent licence transactions have taken place in northern Norway, limiting direct comparisons for Rogaland assets.
Grieg Seafood’s shares were trading at NOK 32.3 (€3.00), below Arctic’s revised target price, though the brokerage said it still does not see a compelling buying opportunity.
The bank said key factors to monitor through the second half of 2026 will be whether biological performance in Rogaland improves and whether feed cost inflation eases sufficiently to narrow the gap with company guidance.