SEB expects a tight salmon market.
“An annual Chilean shortfall of 20 per cent has materialised”, begins Bent Rølland and Simen Brun’s sector analysis for the Swedish investment bank SEB, reports TDN Direkt.
Combined with a catch-up in the restaurant sector, the reference price in the US has risen to an all-time high, and analysts believe that European prices will follow with a 3-6 month lag.
“A higher share of European volumes is expected to enter the US and Asian markets to make up for the loss from Chile. Historically, the loss of Chilean volume has set new price records globally, which will probably also happen this time”, the analysis states.
SEB prefers seawater-based exposure founded on well-known technology instead of land-based alternatives, which are still in a venture phase and involves a high risk for operations.
“Following the large fish mortality rate in Denmark in July, we have increased our cost of capital for Atlantic Sapphire to eight per cent to reflect the perception of increased operational risk,” the analysts write.
Given the brokerage house’s market views and updated assumptions, the analysts prefer Mowi, Bakkafrost, Lerøy Seafood and Grieg Seafood.