Arctic Securities has raised its target price for Icelandic Salmon to NOK 128 (€11.52) per share from NOK 105 (€9.45), reiterating a Buy recommendation after incorporating the proposed Icelandic Aquaculture Law into its estimates.
The revised target reflects an 11% EPS upgrade for 2026 and a 27% upgrade for 2027, according to a note dated 13 April 2026. The stock is trading at NOK 74.5 (€6.71), down 10% year to date and 30% over the past year.
The proposed legislation replaces the current 4% revenue tax with a profitability-based resource tax linked to average industry EBIT per kilogram. Farmers would pay 20% on industry EBIT/kg above EUR 0.85/kg, with a floor of ISK 25/kg (EUR 0.17/kg).
The framework also includes discounts tied to technology adoption. Closed farming systems would receive a 75% discount to the standard rate, while semi-closed systems would receive 60%. Post-smolt incentives offer a 50–70% discount depending on time spent at sea.
A mortality fee of ISK 100 per unexplained fish death is also proposed, applying above a 10% mortality threshold. Arctic Securities expects limited earnings impact from this measure before 2029–2030 under normal conditions.
Biological conditions remain supportive, with seawater temperatures in the Westfjords around 2°C above historical averages in January and February. Biomass in the region was more than 50% higher year on year as of February.
The proposal also introduces Common Biosecurity Areas, which could increase biomass utilisation by allowing allocation of maximum allowable biomass across zones rather than per fjord, although key parameters remain undefined.
Arctic’s DCF model indicates a fair value of NOK 140 (€12.60) per share, with further detail on CBA capacity allocations seen as the next catalyst, according to Arctic Securities.