Price collapse heading into the last full sales week before New Year’s Eve
Production of smoked salmon for the Christmas period is now drawing to a close. In the coming week, the focus shifts to filling fresh fish counters. According to all market participants SalmonBusiness spoke to after lunch on Friday, there will be no shortage of fish. And salmon prices are falling like a stone.
“This is one of the steepest drops we’ve seen in a long time. Everything just stopped yesterday. Customers didn’t want any more fish, so the price fell from NOK 95 ($9.41/€7.98) to NOK 80 ($7.92/€6.72) in the blink of an eye,” said one trader.
“We’re most likely slaughtering far too much fish. The processing industry is finished for the season,” he added.
Avoiding the spot market
“‘Be careful next week’ is good advice. You absolutely don’t want to be sitting on unsold fish, I can promise you that.”
“The price dropped NOK 20 on 6+ sizes and NOK 15 on the rest. What we’re hearing for next week is NOK 80 ($7.92/€6.72) for 3–6 kg and NOK 75 ($7.43/€6.30) for 6+,” he continued.
“We haven’t bought anything. We need customers lined up. Everything is back-to-back, meaning purchases tied directly to confirmed sales. We’re not buying spot fish. There’s far too much fish around, and we’re struggling to find buyers.”
Trading is now completely dominated by the fresh market.
“I’ve never seen a halt like this in week 50. We sold two truckloads just now and lost NOK 600,000 ($59,400/€50,400) on them,” he admitted.
He is acutely aware that next week is the final full five-day trading week before 2026.
“The risk is that Christmas arrives, and who’s buying fish then? Demand is low. The factories are closed.”
Locked
The same message is coming from multiple quarters.
“There are a lot of players with a lot of fish to sell today,” one exporter told SalmonBusiness.
“How far can prices fall?”
“It’s honestly impossible to say. Prices no longer line up with the processing side, and they’ve pulled back. The market feels completely locked. There’s no point pushing big volumes now if prices don’t align, and they don’t, even at NOK 80 ($7.92/€6.72). They’re not getting more orders.”
“You’re heading into a week that will probably be even worse. There’s a lot of big fish around. It won’t be easy. Prices have to adjust downward. I think it dips below NOK 80 before the day is over. You certainly can’t buy much fish above NOK 80. That carries a lot of risk. Anyone who likes risk is welcome to buy it,” he said.
He does not believe in any quick rebound.
Unsold fish
“When there’s already this much unsold fish, it’s not easy to recover. The only sensible thing now is to stay put. Some processing plants have furloughed staff in the middle of the Christmas season, so they’re not taking in more fish. Chile has plenty of fish and is entering the market at lower prices. I think prices need to move down into the NOK 70–80 range ($6.93–$7.92/€5.88–€6.72) to clear volumes reasonably well going forward.”
With just 12 days to Christmas Eve, frustration is spreading through the market.
“We haven’t managed to do much yet. We’ve spent half the day getting rid of leftover fish, mainly 6+. The levels look about right, but if things get too extreme, we’ll step away. We’re going to be cautious. Next week, you really don’t want to be left holding unsold fish,” said one exporter.
“Nothing is settled yet. Prices will be low, yes. Everything today is back-to-back. It’s a sudden stop,” said another.
