Kontali Analyse halves the outlook for supply growth in 2022

Aslak Berge
Reduces estimates for global salmon production.

Pareto Securities wrote Monday in a client note that Kontali Analyse now expects a supply growth of 1.6 per cent in 2022, which is down from 3.3 per cent in the previous report.

The downgrade is mainly driven by Chile, where growth is now expected to be 2.4 per cent, compared with 5.6 per cent previously. In Norway, too, the growth estimate has been adjusted downwards, to 1.6 per cent from 2.8 per cent.

After a challenging salmon year in 2020, 2021 was characterised by strong export growth. The spawning stock growth is expected to increase further this year. At the start of 2022, the price of salmon per kilo is €1.5 above the level it was at 12 months ago.

Smaller fish to harvest and offer for sale globally usually means strengthened salmon prices. According to Fish Pool, the salmon price is set to have its strongest development since 2016. At that time, the average price ended at NOK 62 (€6.20) per kilo.


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