Arctic Securities has reiterated a Hold recommendation on Lerøy Seafood Group, setting a target price of NOK 53 per share, compared with a current price of NOK 49.44, after lowering its 2026 EBIT estimate by 3.5%.
Analyst Christian Olsen Nordby revised Q1 2026 EBIT expectations down from NOK 854 million to NOK 827 million. The adjustment reflects a reduced salmon price assumption of NOK 85.7 per kilo, compared with a previous estimate of NOK 89 per kilo. Lerøy harvested 9% more volume than Arctic had forecast in the quarter, but the lower price outlook more than offset the volume upside.
Arctic Securities highlighted differing biological performance across regions. Western Norway is showing improvement, with lower treatment intensity year-on-year, attributed to investment in new technology. Central Norway continues to report treatment levels in line with 2025 and above 2024 levels, while northern Norway is described as stable.
The broker expects stronger operational performance from western Norway in the coming quarters, with no comparable improvement yet visible in central regions.
The Value Added Products (VAP) Sales and Distribution segment is expected to deliver EBIT of around NOK 230 million in Q1, corresponding to a margin of 2.8%. While Lerøy has guided for higher revenues in 2026, margins in this segment are expected to decline.
Arctic Securities’ 2026 EBIT estimate sits 13% below consensus. The stock is trading at 14.8 times estimated 2026 earnings, which the broker considers broadly fair. With earnings estimates more likely to be revised down than up, Arctic sees limited potential for multiple expansion.