Handelsbanken analyst Erik Cederberg maintained a BUY rating on Mowi in a results preview published 11 May 2026, while cautioning that spot price recovery risks are skewed to the downside.
Norwegian feed consumption rose 5% year-on-year in January–March, according to Kontali data cited in the note. Harvest-ready biomass was up 4% year-on-year in March but preliminarily down in April. Export volumes remained 12% above prior-year levels through week 18, with March and April still showing 2–3% increases.
Cederberg’s conclusion: supply is decelerating from an elevated base, and clearing prices remain under pressure. With a market consensus already pricing in improvement, he sees more downside than upside in the near-term spot price.
The structural concern is timing. Spot prices typically peak in H1 before softening into Q3 as harvest volumes rise. Cederberg argues that consensus earnings expectations for a H2 rebound, combined with elevated starting valuations, create an unfavourable setup if Q1 results undershoot.
“The key risk in our view is misjudging timing and scale, not direction,” the note states.
Handelsbanken estimates Mowi’s operational EBIT at EUR 1,124 million for full-year 2026, implying an enterprise value below 10x EBIT. The bank views this as supportable. Mowi’s integrated value chain is cited as a buffer against spot price softness, and Mowi Chile is flagged as a volume opportunity into the US market.
The BUY recommendation was first set on 6 April 2025 at a share price of NOK 182.10. Handelsbanken beneficially owns more than 1% of Mowi’s common equity, as disclosed in the note.