Surplus fish halts hopes of a price lift.
High slaughter volumes and weaker currency are keeping salmon prices flat.
“There’s no upswing. We expected prices to rise, but that’s been called off. There’s a fair amount of fish sitting unsold. The big players have a lot of volume. This is not a lively market. There’s no increase in sight. At best, we’re hoping for stability,” a trader says of the salmon market.
“The market has made up its mind, it’s not going above seven euros,” he adds, pointing to the following salmon prices for the coming week: “2–3 kg at NOK 70 ($6.93/€5.95) and 3+ kg at NOK 76–77 ($7.52–$7.62/€6.46–€6.55) to farmers in the north. We don’t see any price increase in the coming weeks.”
“The currency has weakened as well, so there’s about five cents there too,” he notes to SalmonBusiness.
Selective market
Several sources point to surplus fish and unexpectedly high slaughter volumes in the first two weeks of January.
“NOK 77–78 ($7.62–$7.72/€6.55–€6.63) for 3–4 kg, but it’s been a difficult week. It’s going to be a struggle to secure stable prices from the farming side. I think the market is quite selective at the moment. The weight distribution is still skewed toward a lot of large fish,” says a buyer.
“There’s plenty of fish available, and that’s a problem in itself. We’ll see whether people have managed to clear some volume. Many have been spooked, both farmers and customers, by prices relative to expectations.”
Distorted competition
Several exporters are feeling the impact of heavy volumes of low-priced Chilean fillets in the US and Asian markets. Seaborn chief executive Frank Yri warned yesterday that Norwegian exporters are losing ground in the US.
“Further weakening of the dollar could hit markets that are dependent on dollar pricing. We’re seeing expectations of higher prices and lower production growth. Especially in Asia, Chile is attacking with salmon, trout and coho at lower prices,” Yri said.
US President Donald Trump has imposed a 15 percent tariff on Norway in a market where competitors Chile, the United Kingdom and the Faroe Islands face 10 percent, while Canada has zero. This creates competitive distortion, which feeds through into prices.
“‘NOK 75–76 ($7.43–$7.52/€6.38–€6.46) for 3–4 kg and 4+,’” a trader writes in a text message to SalmonBusiness.