A proposed shift from Norway’s traffic light system to sea lice quotas could reduce national salmon harvest volumes by around 12%, according to a new analysis from Pareto Securities.
The investment bank said the impact would vary significantly between regions and companies, with producers exposed to western Norway facing the largest reductions. According to Pareto’s estimates, Grieg Seafood could see harvest volumes fall by around 34%, Lerøy Seafood by 16%, while Mowi and Måsøval would face cuts of around 10%. SalMar’s Norwegian operations would be reduced by approximately 7%.
The analysis comes one year after the Norwegian Parliament postponed plans to overhaul aquaculture regulation and replace the traffic light system with a quota-based regime linked to lice-induced mortality on wild salmon.
Pareto argues that site location, rather than overall biomass or lice levels, is the strongest predictor of traffic light outcomes. Its analysis found that farming sites located close to wild salmon migration routes are disproportionately responsible for modelled lice pressure.
The bank estimates that removing a limited number of what it describes as high-risk “superspreader” sites could reduce national harvest volumes by only around 2%, while achieving similar environmental benefits. No listed salmon farmer would see production fall by more than 3% under that approach, according to the report.
Pareto also questioned the assumption that sea lice from aquaculture are the dominant cause of wild salmon declines. The report points to long-term declines in wild salmon catches on both coasts of Scotland despite major differences in salmon farming activity, as well as observations from Canada where lice levels remained elevated after farm closures.
The bank concluded that a regulatory framework based on uncertain mortality models risks imposing substantial costs on the salmon farming industry without necessarily delivering the intended environmental outcomes.