Pareto Securities cautious but optimistic on salmon sector after analyst change
Pareto Securities has lowered its 2025–2027 price forecasts for salmon following an analyst change, while maintaining a cautiously positive view on the seafood sector. The brokerage also downgraded Bakkafrost and Arctic Fish and made several smaller target price adjustments, according to a sector report published Monday.
“We believe that the fundamental conditions in the sector justify a cautiously positive stance; falling feed costs have yet to show up in earnings, the share of superior-quality salmon is expected to improve, global supply growth appears limited to around 2%, demand should strengthen and prices rise, while a change of government could ease the salmon tax burden,” analyst Henrik Longva Knutsen wrote.
The firm expects global demand growth to slow from roughly 9% in 2025 to around 2% in 2026. “With the price decline seen this year, contract prices—and therefore retail prices—are likely to fall next year, which should boost demand. On the other hand, U.S. tariffs of 15% on Norwegian imports, compared with an average tariff of around 10%, indicate that Norwegian producers are in a worse position than competitors, which will push more volumes into the more price-sensitive European market,” the report said.
Pareto forecasts FHL spot prices at €6.2/kg in 2025, rising to €7.0 and €7.3 in 2026 and 2027 respectively. The firm noted that “consensus already prices in a significant increase in salmon prices,” and therefore adopts a more cautious approach to a potential “price comeback,” citing U.S. tariffs, high 2025 volumes feeding into 2026, and continued improvement in Norway’s superior-quality share.
SalMar was highlighted as Pareto’s top pick, “driven by the strongest expected volume growth and cost reductions toward 2026, higher quality in next year’s slaughter, and the greatest upside in the event of a possible reduction in the salmon tax.”
Recommendations and target prices:
| Company | Recommendation | Target Price (Previous) |
|---|---|---|
| Arctic Fish | Hold (Buy) | 40 (65) |
| Bakkafrost | Hold (Buy) | 470 (570) |
| Grieg Seafood | Hold | 73 (65) |
| Icelandic Salmon | Hold | 90 (100) |
| Lerøy Seafood | Buy | 54 |
| Mowi | Buy | 220 (240) |
| SalMar | Buy | 530 (560) |
