Prices go sideways despite red-hot salmon market

Aslak Berge

Smaller movements in a market characterized by high activity.

SalmonBusiness collects spot prices for salmon every Friday after lunch. This is fish for delivery the following week.

On Friday 17 November, one salmon producer said, “We’re looking at NOK 75-76 ($6.90-$7.00/€6.88-€7.05). We do have a bit of a sale going on, but overall, it’s stable.” They added, “You can say it’s in the mid-70s ($6.47-$6.65/€7.05-€7.35). We don’t foresee any significant changes until early December.”

“It’s been a few hectic weeks. As you can see, there’s a lot happening right now, and we expect the same for the coming week,” another buyer told SalmonBusiness.

However, not everyone shares the optimism about price stability. As one observer said, “I think farmers might have a hard time keeping prices as they are. The negotiation climate is quite challenging.”

If their prediction holds true, it would mean prices would remain in line with last Friday’s rates, at NOK 73-74 ($6.69-$6.78/€6.21-€6.37) for the most common weight classes.

Another trader weighed in, saying, “The market isn’t particularly strong, and there’s still a surplus of fish from larger batches. While producers might aim for higher prices, it’s uncertain whether they’ll succeed.”

Currency exchange rates are also playing a role, with one expert noting, “The currency has weakened considerably. The euro was up to NOK 12 ($1.10), but now it’s at NOK 11.80 ($1.08). This shift also brings a few extra kroner into the mix.”

In the midst of this uncertainty, some industry voices are cautiously optimistic about potential price increases:

“Prices aren’t dropping; they’re in the mid-70s ($6.90-$7.00/€6.88-€7.05). Some even mention NOK 76-77 ($6.99-$7.10/€6.27-€6.43). It’s showing an upward trend,” one trader said. However, they acknowledged the challenges of managing higher market volumes.

A farmer acknowledged the busy season, noting, “We’re working at full capacity, and there’s a lot of demand.” Despite this, they don’t foresee significant price shifts, expecting a minor increase, possibly to 6+ ($7.00 and €7.35). They also pointed out that salmon prices have typically stabilized on Fridays, partly influenced by developments in the Chinese market.

Each week SalmonBusiness contacts several links in the value chain, including producers, exporters and importers. We always have at least five independent sources, although not all sources necessarily appear in print. We vary which sources we use, and do not use the same sources every time.

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