Norway’s 2026 traffic light decision shaped by uneven lice pressure and rising treatment intensity.
Norway’s aquaculture sector is heading into the 2026 update of the Traffic Light System with continued biological pressure and growing operational intensity, according to a new analysis published by aquaculture data company Manolin.
The analysis notes that expectations around the next traffic light outcome are already forming across the industry, despite final classifications not yet being set. Manolin stresses that the regulatory decision is based on a combination of field monitoring, model-based interpretation, and an expert steering group process, rather than a single data point.
The Traffic Light System relies on both observational data and modelling outputs produced by the Institute of Marine Research, which has previously stated that models are intended to be evaluated alongside field observations and over larger spatial and temporal scales.
Data from 2025 shows that lice-related mortality exposure among wild salmonids remains high in several production areas, but unevenly distributed along the coast.
Tight operating environment persists into 2026
Production Area 5 recorded an estimated mortality exposure of 90 percent in 2025, while Production Area 7 reached 85 percent. Other areas showed sharp year-on-year changes. Production Area 2 rose from 8 percent in 2024 to 54 percent in 2025, while Production Area 4 increased from 37 percent to 68 percent.At the same time, some regions showed marked improvement. Production Area 9 fell from 89 percent in 2024 to 39 percent in 2025, while Production Area 12 declined from 42 percent to 8 percent.Manolin said these shifts underline why the Traffic Light System remains high stakes for producers, as classifications are set at area level and directly affect production planning.
Manolin concludes that the combination of sustained lice pressure, elevated temperatures, increasing treatment intensity, and uneven mortality exposure across production areas explains why the 2026 Traffic Light System update remains a critical issue for the industry.While the classification outcome will vary by region, the analysis notes that the underlying operating environment is likely to remain tight for salmon farmers into 2026.