SalMar is expected to see improving operational performance in Central Norway, supporting a stronger earnings outlook.
Central Norway delivered 70% higher harvest volumes year-on-year in Q1 2026, with moderate treatment intensity. Farming costs in the region are estimated at NOK 60 (€5.40) per kilo for the quarter, down from elevated levels, with further reductions expected in Q2, according to Arctic Securities.
Central Norway had previously lagged expectations. Regional farming costs reached NOK 60 (€5.40) per kilo in Q4 2025, above earlier estimates of NOK 56 (€5.04), while Northern Norway outperformed at NOK 45.6 (€4.10) per kilo versus a NOK 50 (€4.50) estimate, according to the investment bank.
With Central Norway accounting for roughly 20% more volume than the northern region, the shortfall pushed group costs above expectations. This trend is now reversing, with group farming costs forecast at around NOK 50 (€4.50) per kilo for full-year 2026, which would restore cost leadership among Norwegian peers, according to Arctic Securities.
Q1 EBIT is estimated at NOK 1.56 billion (€140.40 million), broadly in line with consensus of NOK 1.5 billion (€135.00 million). A realised salmon price of NOK 85.7 (€7.71) per kilo was below expectations of around NOK 88 (€7.92), but higher harvest volumes largely offset the impact, according to the broker.
A one-off loss of around NOK 100 million (€9.00 million) is expected at Innovamar due to scheduled maintenance, compared with consensus expectations for a positive contribution from the Sales and Distribution segment.
The company is trading at around 16 times estimated 2026 earnings and is valued at 11.5 times 2027 earnings based on a salmon price of NOK 88 (€7.92) per kilo, with the implied valuation gap underpinning the investment case, according to Arctic Securities.
Arctic Securities has reiterated a Buy recommendation on the stock, with a target price of NOK 645 (€58.05) per share, compared with a current price of NOK 548.5 (€49.37).