Handelsbanken has retained its Hold recommendation on SalMar with a 12-month target price of NOK 600, citing price risk as the dominant threat ahead of H1 results.
Analyst Erik Cederberg argues the recovery thesis is intact but already priced in. Consensus (Infront) forecasts 118% growth in 2026 operational EBIT against a weak 2025 base — yet estimates have already fallen 6% since SalMar’s Q4 report.
SalMar’s Q1 2026 trading update showed harvest volumes of 60,300 tonnes, with Central Norway as the primary driver. The company guided for slightly lower costs quarter-on-quarter in Q1.
Cederberg’s concern is timing and magnitude, not direction. Spot prices tend to peak in the first half of the year. If H1 pricing comes in below consensus, the downside risk exceeds the upside potential, he said.
Norwegian production remains above 2025 levels year-to-date, though growth slowed in March and April. Feed consumption in Norway ran approximately 5% higher in January-March year-on-year, according to Cederberg’s note. Kontali reported harvest-ready biomass up 4% year-on-year in March.
A frozen inventory overhang adds further pressure that headline harvest and export data do not fully capture, Handelsbanken said.
SalMar cut its 2026 capex guidance sharply to NOK 1.1 billion, signalling a shift toward leverage reduction and cash generation. At approximately 13x 2026 estimated operational EBIT, Cederberg sees risk/reward as balanced at best.