Fearnleys Aquaculture has cut its 2026 EBITDA estimate for Salmon Evolution to NOK 23 million ($2.1 million) from NOK 62 million ($5.7 million), following the company’s weaker-than-expected first quarter results and a slower projected decline in production costs.
In a note dated May 6, the broker lowered its target price to NOK 6.3 per share from NOK 6.5, while maintaining its Buy recommendation.
Fearnleys said the Q1 2026 earnings miss and a flatter cost-per-kilogram development through the year drove the downgrade. The bank now forecasts farming EBITDA costs of NOK 72/kg ($6.98/kg) in 2026, falling to NOK 62/kg ($6.01/kg) in 2027.
The broker also reduced its 2027 harvest volume estimate to 12,000 tonnes from 14,600 tonnes, citing Salmon Evolution’s plan to release around 2.8 million smolts in 2026.
As a result, Fearnleys cut its 2027 EBITDA estimate by 33% to NOK 217 million ($21.0 million). The bank said its EBITDA forecasts for 2026–2028 are now between 7% and 62% below FactSet consensus estimates.
Fearnleys said Salmon Evolution’s long-term expansion plans remain unchanged, with the company targeting production capacity of 18,000 tonnes in Phase 2 and 36,000 tonnes in Phase 3. A final investment decision on pre-growout tanks is expected in the second half of 2026.
Standing biomass fell 21% year on year in the first quarter. Fearnleys expects the company to prioritise biomass build-up during Q2 and models harvest volumes of 1,100 tonnes and EBITDA of NOK -5 million (-$0.48 million) for the quarter, compared with consensus expectations of NOK 26 million ($2.5 million).
Management reiterated during the Q1 earnings presentation that costs are expected to decline gradually through 2026, with a target of reaching the low NOK 60s per kilogram by mid-2027.