Widespread logistics disruption is creating major challenges.
“This has been a disastrous week. The biggest hit we have seen in a long time. There are several factors at play. Europe is in total chaos, Amsterdam has been closed. Paris, Hamburg and Berlin as well. There are huge pools of fish that simply are not getting out,” an exporter tells SalmonBusiness.
At Amsterdam Schiphol Airport, more than 700 flights have been cancelled due to snow, according to AFP. Avinor also reports that several flights from Oslo Gardermoen have been cancelled. In France, the country’s transport minister Philippe Tabarot has said that more than 100 flights have been cancelled as a result of snow and extreme cold.
Delays
“The price fall already started on Monday. 6+ has dropped by NOK 20 ($1.98/€1.70). 3–6 has fallen by at least NOK 12 ($1.19/€1.02). It has hit everything hard. It will take time before this clears up. Flights are being delayed constantly. Things are not back to normal yet. There is a lot of unsold fish.”
“I know customers who bought 3–6 pack sizes at NOK 80 ($7.92/€6.80) on Monday. That means you, as an exporter, need to buy at NOK 78 ($7.72/€6.63) just to make money. 6+ is sitting at NOK 75–76 ($7.43–$7.52/€6.38–€6.46). We have not bought anything yet. The chaos is not over. We are still seeing offers from farmers at NOK 80 ($7.92/€6.80),” he continues.
The snowfall across Europe is not especially heavy by Norwegian standards. However, major intercontinental airports have very limited capacity for snow clearing and aircraft de-icing.
“They simply do not have the infrastructure. Twenty centimetres of snow in Hamburg is enough to close schools,” he says.
Little processing
“I think the price would have fallen anyway, but not by this much. The bad weather amplified it. It affected everything. Chile has a lot of fish that they are selling cheaply into China. In Norway, there is no longer any ‘production fish’ being produced. That means very little is going into processing.”
“I think prices will settle around NOK 80–85 ($7.92–$8.42/€6.80–€7.23) going forward. That is a level the market can live with,” he concludes.
“I heard prices were heading towards NOK 80 ($7.92/€6.80),” says another exporter. “France has been in chaos. Trucks carrying whitefish were also cancelled because they could not get the product out.”
In Norway, parts of the E6 over Saltfjellet have also been closed at times.
“We have not experienced any major problems here in Norway. The issues are mostly further south in Europe. Schiphol can only handle around 20 flights per hour under these conditions,” he notes.
Pressure
Others see prices falling even further.
“Prices are still too high. I think 3–4 kg will trade at NOK 75 ($7.43/€6.38) and 4+ at NOK 76 ($7.52/€6.46). It could easily be that 6+ drops even further. That is the size people are struggling with. There is too much of it. Average weights are very high,” says a trader.
“The fresh market is not exactly booming, neither in China nor elsewhere. At the same time, prices are too high for freezing and smoking.”
He also notes that air-freight markets are proving difficult.
“That may well be true, but I am not seeing demand in the air-freight market either.”
Several independent sources confirm price levels below NOK 80 ($7.92/€6.80).
“NOK 78 ($7.72/€6.63) in the north for 3–5 kg and NOK 76 ($7.52/€6.46) for 6+,” says one of them.
“It has been a tough week, especially for large fish. Most people have probably lost money,” says another. “I have heard the following indications:
-
2–3 kg: NOK 65 ($6.44/€5.53)
-
3–4 kg: NOK 76 ($7.52/€6.46)
-
4–5 kg: NOK 77 ($7.62/€6.55)
-
5–6 kg: NOK 78 ($7.72/€6.63)
-
6+ kg: NOK 76 ($7.52/€6.46)
