Prices slide toward EUR 5.42 as summer supply surge continues.
Norwegian salmon spot prices are expected to fall to around EUR 5.42/kg (USD 6.16/kg) next week, down from an estimated EUR 5.47–5.65/kg (USD 6.22–6.42/kg) this week, according to analysts.
Norwegian salmon exports reached 35,988 tonnes in week 25, up 10.4% year on year and 9.9% week on week, marking the highest export volume recorded for any week in the second quarter. Demand, measured in euro terms, totalled EUR 213 million, up 4.0% year on year and 2.6% week on week. Year-to-date demand growth stands at 5.6%, while second-quarter demand is running 7.6% ahead of the same period last year. The market does not appear to have a demand problem but rather a supply problem, with the largest salmon farmers accounting for most of the harvest volume. Average harvest weight is down 3.0% year on year, reflecting a generation shift in the sea as producers approach their maximum allowable biomass limits. Export volumes are now approaching the industry’s practical weekly capacity of around 40,000 tonnes, analysts said.
Volume-weighted second-quarter prices settled at around EUR 6.45/kg (USD 7.33/kg), well below earlier consensus expectations. The third quarter has also begun on a weak footing, with continued high harvest volumes weighing on the opening price. The weaker second-quarter outcome is now largely reflected in market expectations.
Each week, SalmonBusiness gathers salmon price forecasts from industry analysts for the week ahead. Unless otherwise stated, prices refer to Superior 3–6 kg salmon, per kilo FCA Oslo, converted using the day’s average exchange rate.