Prices expected to fall sharply on high volumes.
Norwegian salmon spot prices are expected to decline in week 16, with estimates pointing to EUR 6.62 (USD 7.63) per kilo, down from approximately EUR 7.34 (USD 8.45) this week. The implied drop of around NOK 8/kg week on week reflects increased harvest volumes across several regions, according to seafood industry analysts.
First-quarter harvests have come in above expectations for multiple producers. One major farmer reported volumes 14% above consensus, driven by strong biological development in Central Norway. Another delivered a 30% upside to guidance, also linked to favourable growth conditions. A third exceeded market estimates, with the outperformance concentrated in its northern operations.
The last four-week rolling value of Norwegian salmon exports is up 0.4% year on year. Weekly comparisons remain distorted, with week 14 export volumes down 46% year on year due to the Easter effect.
Higher volumes are being supported by elevated sea temperatures, which have accelerated biological growth, particularly in Central Norway. Several companies have reported improved biomass status and have upgraded expectations for utilisation rates in the coming quarters.
One producer reported quality issues following mechanical lice treatment, with a Superior share of 60% versus an expected 90%. The company estimates a full-year profit impact of EUR 4.47–6.71 million (USD 5.15–7.73 million), analysts said.
Each week, SalmonBusiness gathers salmon price forecasts from industry analysts for the week ahead. Unless otherwise stated, prices refer to Superior 3–6 kg salmon, per kilo FCA Oslo, converted using the day’s average exchange rate.