Prices set to ease as spring softness takes hold.
The Norwegian salmon spot price is expected to fall to around EUR 6.91 (USD 8.12) per kilo next week, down EUR 0.22 (USD 0.27) from this week’s estimated level, as seasonal softness builds into the May–June period, according to analysts.
The shorter four-day trading week could provide some support toward the end of the period as more volume is cleared ahead of the weekend, one analyst said.
Norwegian salmon exports in week 18 totalled 26,521 tonnes, down 6.2% year-on-year and 6% week-on-week in a four-day trading week. Despite lower volumes, export value in EUR rose 12% year-on-year, while the four-week rolling average increased 5.8% year-on-year.
Demand for Norwegian salmon reached approximately EUR 190 million last week, up 7.6% year-on-year. Asia continued to drive growth, with China imports rising 28–31% year-on-year and Polish imports up 46% year-on-year, indicating firm retail and processing demand.
Monthly figures from the Norwegian Seafood Council showed April export volumes up 1% year-on-year, while export value in EUR increased 3% year-on-year.
Currency movements are working against the industry, with the strengthening Norwegian krone reducing NOK-denominated returns.
Feed costs are also rising as Peru’s anchovy catch remains at roughly 23% of quota, tightening fishmeal and fish oil supply. Analysts estimate this could add between EUR 0.18 and EUR 0.37 (USD 0.22–0.43) per kilo to production costs depending on how tight the market becomes.
Each week, SalmonBusiness gathers salmon price forecasts from industry analysts for the week ahead. Unless otherwise stated, prices refer to Superior 3–6 kg salmon, per kilo FCA Oslo, converted using the day’s average exchange rate.