Prices expected to jump in week 18.
Analysts project Norwegian salmon spot prices for week 18 at approximately EUR 7.34 (USD 8.60) per kilo, a sharp increase from this week’s estimated EUR 6.51 (USD 7.64). The rise of roughly EUR 0.83 (USD 0.97) week on week reflects tightening market conditions heading into late April. Analysts note that Q2 prices are off to a slow start relative to consensus expectations, which could pose downside risk for seasonal price estimates.
Week 16 Norwegian export volumes rose 36% year on year to approximately 30,300 tonnes, partly influenced by last year’s Easter timing. The four-week rolling Norwegian export value in EUR is up 6% year on year, signalling improving demand dynamics. Chinese customs data for March showed fresh Atlantic salmon imports of 18,400 tonnes whole fish equivalent, up 54% year on year, bringing year-to-date volumes to 60,900 tonnes, a 61% increase. Norway captured a 67% market share in China, up from 62% for full-year 2025. Demand growth is primarily driven by Asia, which largely offsets weaker US demand.
Norwegian salmon biomass in March stood at approximately 852,000 tonnes, down 1.3% year on year, though the 2025 generation is up 1% year on year. The number of individuals in sea fell 3.1% year on year on fewer fish from previous generations. Feed consumption declined 2% year on year, while mortality rose to 1.2% in March from 0.7% in February due to an algae event in production area 1. Northern Norway biomass looks particularly strong at 4.8% higher year on year. Analysts pencil in approximately 2% Norwegian volume growth for 2026.
Each week, SalmonBusiness gathers salmon price forecasts from industry analysts for the week ahead. Unless otherwise stated, prices refer to Superior 3–6 kg salmon, per kilo FCA Oslo, converted using the day’s average exchange rate.