Prices jump from holiday-shortened week.
Analysts expect Norwegian salmon to trade around EUR 7.60 (USD 8.87) per kilo next week, up from an estimated EUR 7.36–7.40 (USD 8.58–8.63) this week. The increase of roughly EUR 0.20–0.25 per kilo reflects a rebound from last week’s reported spot price of approximately EUR 6.62 (USD 7.72). The price jump this week was amplified by a four-day harvesting week due to the May 1st holiday, and analysts note that the transition to a full harvesting week next week should keep prices roughly stable at this elevated level.
Norwegian export volumes in week 17 reached 28,222 tonnes, up 3.9% year-on-year but down 6.7% from the previous week. Export value in EUR terms fell 2.7% year-on-year to EUR 182 million. Average harvest weights have dropped from about 5.0 kg to 4.7 kg over recent weeks, which analysts interpret as a signal that productivity may be slowing from record levels. One analyst notes that all three major Norwegian farmers have harvested substantially more so far in the second quarter, yet their volume guidance suggests no growth from the second quarter through the fourth quarter. This could mean the market tightens considerably in the months ahead. Demand from Asia, particularly China, continues to support overall volumes.
Sea lice levels remain low across the Norwegian coast, though five sites exceeded the threshold in week 17 compared to eleven sites the previous week, reflecting an improvement under the recently lowered lice limit.
Each week, SalmonBusiness gathers salmon price forecasts from industry analysts for the week ahead. Unless otherwise stated, prices refer to Superior 3–6 kg salmon, per kilo FCA Oslo, converted using the day’s average exchange rate.