Currency, algae, and major price discrepancies ahead of Barcelona trade show.
“We’re going to buy very little, but I’ve heard everything from NOK 65.00 ($6.24/€5.53) to NOK 67.00 ($6.43/€5.70) for 3–6 kg fish. And I think there will be individual sales that go well. Since it’s a trade show, customers are only buying what they absolutely need,” an exporter tells SalmonBusiness.
Like all other industry sources speaking today, he is preparing for next week’s seafood expo in the Catalan capital, Barcelona.
“I don’t think we’ll see prices in the NOK 70s. Up north, they’re struggling with algae — Nordlaks has a lot of small fish. And that’s having some impact on the market. A lot of fish is being harvested,” he says.
Keeping the pace
Others are seeing even lower prices.
“Prices next week certainly aren’t going up,” says one trader. “What I’m hearing is:
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2–3 kg at NOK 57.00 ($5.47/€4.85)
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3–6 kg at NOK 64.00 ($6.14/€5.44)
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6–8 kg at NOK 60.00 ($5.76/€5.10)
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8+ kg at NOK 58.00 ($5.57/€4.93)
“Large fish have been an absolute nightmare lately. So those aren’t good prices. It’s going to be chaos next week because of the expo. The problem is, we still have to pack. There’s a lot of fish and it’s growing fast. We’ve got to keep up the pace — we can’t delay. The MTB is climbing fast,” he says by phone from the fish market near Barcelona airport.
Still, no major price swings are expected.
Currency shift
“It’s a little lower. We paid NOK 66.00 ($6.34/€5.61) for 3–6 kg last Friday. Part of that is currency. The price in euros is the same. The Norwegian krone has strengthened — there’s a two-krone swing on the exchange rate.”
“It’s been drifting down and will probably stay there for a while. Less injured fish now. It’s usually a weak week when everyone’s at the show,” says a buyer.
“It’s slipped a bit heading into next week. There’s an expectation that prices will correct during Barcelona week. It happens almost every year. Many take it slower when they’re down there. There’s quite a bit of fish coming out due to the algae situation — low average weight, high volume of small fish. That affects the overall picture. I’m guessing NOK 58.00 ($5.57/€4.93) for 6+ kg, NOK 62.00 ($5.95/€5.27) for 3–6,” says another exporter.
That would mark a new low for salmon prices this year.
Unnecessary
But one farmer sees significantly higher prices than that. The price gap is striking.
“We haven’t sold anything yet. Some customers say they’ve been offered NOK 77.00 ($7.39/€6.55). It’s good to see prices bounce back from the absolute bottom. We’ve had a few phone calls today. We’re going out with an offer of NOK 80.00 ($7.68/€6.80) for 3–6 kg,” he says.
“The euro’s at 11.76 — that matters a little, but not that much. China hasn’t come in yet, but we don’t have much going there anyway,” he adds.
“I think we’ve got the highest price,” says another farmer. “That’s because we don’t have a huge volume of fish. It was unnecessary to push prices down like that last week. We’re selling 3–4 kg at NOK 82.00 ($7.87/€6.97) and 4–5 kg at NOK 84.00 ($8.06/€7.14), delivered Oslo.”
“I get that I’m probably NOK 15.00 ($1.44/€1.28) higher than the lowest offers out there, but wait until I see them next week — then we’ll see who’s right,” he says.
“3–4 and 4–5 kg are the most attractive sizes. I’m not sure it makes sense for 6+ to be priced lower. That size is thinning out. We’re going to Barcelona with very little fish to sell, so we’ll see how the week plays out. But there’s no doubt that salmon prices are going up from where they were last Friday,” he says firmly.
SalmonBusiness gathers spot prices for salmon every Friday after lunch, tracking fish to be delivered the following week. This process involves contacting multiple entities in the value chain, including farmers, exporters, and importers. At least five independent sources are consulted, though they may not always be publicly disclosed.