“The tendency has been for fish to spend three years in the ocean instead of two and that trend has increased over the last 60 years or so, except for the last 10 years,” Schindler said, adding that this year’s record run was more than half two-ocean sockeye. “If the forecast turns out, it will be the largest return of three-ocean fish in history.”
Largest commercial sockeye fishery
The fact that the 2022 run will come on the heels of an inshore run of approximately 66.1 million sockeye — the all-time record — which provides researchers more to go on as well, according to Schindler.
A run of more than 70 million sockeye would allow for an inshore harvest of 52 million to approximately 60 million, according to the forecasts. More than 40 million sockeye were harvested from the Bay last summer; the 2021 run of 66.1 million fish was also 32 per cent above the state’s preseason forecast and the latest in a string of very strong sockeye returns Bristol Bay, which is the largest commercial sockeye fishery in the world.
State Fish and Game research biologist Greg Buck said the recent good runs also serve to give biologists confidence beyond just last year’s spectacular performance.
“We’ve had some really large returns so that we can say (2022) is believable,” Buck said.
Global warming
The biologists both gave credence to what has been the prevailing theory about the generally increasing abundance of Bristol Bay sockeye — that a warming Bering Sea is becoming more productive — while salmon fisheries are largely suffering elsewhere in the state and beyond.
“It is clear that productivity is up but we’re going to get a couple low returns. Who knows when it will happen?” Schindler said.
He believes the large lakes that juvenile Bristol Bay sockeye rear in are becoming more productive as they warm with the climate as well.
“We’ve shown that juvenile salmon grow faster now than historically. That corresponds with this buildup in the number of fish that have returned to Bristol Bay in the last few decades,” Schindler said.
Peak
Buck said he attributes the positive trend in sockeye productivity more to what’s happening in the saltwater mostly because the trend is across nearly all the region’s rivers; the Kuskokwim River to the north has also seen improving sockeye returns, he noted.
Both biologists said the Bay’s sockeye run has to peak at some point, but they don’t think it’ll be anytime too soon.
“How high can it go? I don’t know, but I just released a forecast that was the largest forecast the department has ever put out. There were lots of discussions, but in the end I’m confident with the forecast we released. It’s entirely possible,” Buck said.
