Continued high supply and currency drop push salmon prices down.
A week ago, salmon prices jumped by as much as NOK 15.00 ($1.50/€1.31), climbing well into the NOK 70s ($7.00+/€6.09+). But persistent high supply, coupled with subdued buyer appetite, is now pushing the spot price downward heading into next week.
“It’s hard to say. We don’t know how much the big players are holding, but we’re facing a lot of issues. Iran has closed its airspace. A large volume of fillets is going to Israel. The dollar alone has dropped two kroner just due to exchange rate changes. And Poland is closing down for a public holiday on Thursday,” a buyer told SalmonBusiness.
“We’ve gone out with offers in the high NOK 60s ($6.00s/€5.22s) and up towards NOK 75.00 ($7.50/€6.53), but haven’t managed to buy anything yet.”
In a hesitant market, few trades have been concluded so far. A clear gap in price expectations has emerged between the most commonly traded weight classes and large salmon.
Volume pressures
“It’s split. The big fish are moving well, but it’s more difficult for everything under five kilos. We’re seeing under NOK 70.00 ($7.00/€6.09) for under-5kg, NOK 73–74 ($7.30–7.40/€6.35–6.44) for 5–6kg, and NOK 77–78 ($7.70–7.80/€6.70–6.79) for 6kg and up,” said one exporter.
“I imagine quite a few have lost a fair amount of money this week,” he added.
“What’s behind the price drop?”
“Mainly volume. More fish coming in. Prices got hyped last Friday. We’ve had a full production week, and there’s a red day [public holiday] in Poland on Thursday. Plus, the major producers still have a lot of fish. They still control everything.”
Processors are running double shifts. By the end of last week, Norway’s salmon exports had passed 600,000 tonnes (converted to round weight), which is over 100,000 tonnes more than at the same point last year, according to export data from the Norwegian Seafood Council.
“Are there logistics challenges getting fish to Asia due to the conflict in the Middle East?”
“It could become an issue, but for now we’re not entirely sure. We’ll have to wait and see.”
Shutdowns on the horizon
Multiple sources confirm prices around NOK 70.00 ($7.00/€6.09) for 3–5kg fish and NOK 75.00 ($7.50/€6.53) for large salmon.
“Yes, that’s broadly correct. Ideally, the 3–5kg category should have been priced below NOK 70.00 ($7.00/€6.09), but we haven’t managed that yet,” said one trader.
“Now prices are falling again. It’s nearly as big a drop as the previous jump. There’s a public holiday in Poland next Thursday, and many factories will be closed on Friday too. That means they won’t need much fish,” said another exporter.
“Already, the price is NOK 67–68 ($6.70–6.80/€5.83–5.92) in Oslo, and we expect it to drop further. We need to get down to that level to make a profit. Fish over 5kg is faring a little better: 5–6kg at NOK 68–70 ($6.80–7.00/€5.92–6.09), 6kg+ at NOK 75.00 ($7.50/€6.53) – the air freight market is slightly stronger. For 2–3kg fish, we’re at NOK 53–54 ($5.30–5.40/€4.61–4.70).”
At the same time, the impact of closed airspace in several Middle Eastern countries is being felt, following the outbreak of hostilities between Iran and Israel.
“It’s war, and that’s impacting demand. The krone has strengthened quite a bit. The dollar is at 9.90 and the euro is at 11.40. So that’s another couple of kroner off the top. It’s time to play it safe and go for back-to-back deals [purchases matched with fixed sales contracts]. We’re heading into a tough period for pricing—no question about it,” he said.
SalmonBusiness gathers spot prices for salmon every Friday after lunch, tracking fish to be delivered the following week. This process involves contacting multiple entities in the value chain, including farmers, exporters, and importers. At least five independent sources are consulted, though they may not always be publicly disclosed.