The market continues to be marked by ample fish availability.
“It’s starting to approach NOK 60.00 ($5.94/€5.16). Around NOK 60–62 ($5.94–6.14/€5.16–5.33). Maybe just under NOK 60.00 for 3–4 kg fish,” a buyer told SalmonBusiness.
“There’s clearly a lot of fish out there. We’ve heard several very low offers from abroad. Harvest volumes are strong, so I suppose this is the result.”
“There’s far too much unsold fish. It’s chaos. The current Oslo price for 4+ kg fish is NOK 58.00 ($5.74/€4.99). That corresponds to €5.50 in the market. So, NOK 55.00 ($5.45/€4.73) for 3–4 kg and NOK 56–57 ($5.54–5.64/€4.82–4.91) for 4+ to the farmer,” an exporter commented.
Thus continues the trend seen throughout the first half of the year — a near-straight downward line.
Changing buying patterns
“There’s a lot of unsold fish and we know there’s a big harvest planned next week. Part of the problem is that customers have changed how they buy. They’re buying much less on Fridays — even airfreight fish. They wait until Monday or Tuesday and make their purchases throughout the week. They only buy what they need for Wednesday–Thursday. They’re holding back because they know prices are coming down,” he explained.
“We exporters have bought fish and lost money in 20 of the last 25 weeks. So now we’ve decided only to buy what we’ve already sold, and then wait through the weekend. We want what’s best for all players in the chain, but this can’t go on. Right now, we’re losing NOK 300,000 ($29,700/€25,800) per truckload. We can’t keep doing this,” he added, frustrated.
“It’s a much tougher market, and there’s quite a bit sitting in cold storage across Europe. Global uncertainty is also a factor — there’s no denying that. Biology’s been excellent in the first half of the year. And it’s not production fish anymore — the wounds have healed.”
Following the market
A larger exporter is seeing even lower prices:
“NOK 55.00 ($5.45/€4.73) for 3–4 kg and NOK 56.00 ($5.54/€4.82) for the rest. That’s the price we’re willing to buy at. Otherwise, there’s no point. You have to follow the market. Right now, if you want to buy, the market is at €5.50. The big players have already sold at NOK 58.00 ($5.74/€4.99) in Oslo. And we have NOK 2.00 ($0.20/€0.17) in freight to Oslo. That’s the reality — we don’t have more margin. That’s just how it is right now.”
“And unfortunately, we can’t agree all prices on Fridays anymore. Buying patterns need to change,” she pointed out.
“There’s a lot of uncertainty in the world. Trump could press the button. There are an unimaginable number of factors, even though the euro’s a bit stronger. There’s a lot of fish out there. Other origins matter too. The Chileans are getting a lot of fish from August. Supply is abundant. There’s a big risk in doing all your buying on Friday.”
Variation
A farmer, however, sees slightly higher price levels — though he confirms the wide spread in offers:
“There’s been a lot of variation these past weeks. The lowest offers are NOK 60–61 ($5.94–6.03/€5.16–5.25), but then we see a sale at NOK 65.00 ($6.44/€5.58). Larger fish in Europe tend to land around that level. We’ve sold production fish at NOK 57.00 ($5.65/€4.91). For 5–6 kg we’re aiming at NOK 69.00 ($6.85/€5.93),” he told SalmonBusiness.
“But I agree — earlier today, NOK 60-something was the best we could get. Bigger fish have moved up a little. We just sold at NOK 65.00 ($6.44/€5.58) to Lithuania for a tight 4–5 kg truckload. And we sold a load to one of Norway’s biggest exporters at NOK 63.00 ($6.24/€5.42) in Oslo.”
“What’s unsold for this week is around NOK 61.00 ($6.04/€5.25). But for next week, we’re selling at NOK 65.00 ($6.44/€5.58),” he concluded. “We believe the market was affected by two short trading weeks and the Polish holiday yesterday.”
Farmers looking to lock in prices on Fish Pool for July can currently do so at €5.82 per kilo — equivalent to NOK 66.75 ($6.61/€5.74).