The logistics tangle is still not resolved.
“I hear things are tightening. No surprise, a fair bit of fish has come in by train. There’s quite a lot of unsold fish today,” an exporter told SalmonBusiness.
“I think many buyers are sitting on the fence now, so it’s difficult to see where it ends. It’s definitely trending downward, that much is certain.”
However, prices have risen markedly compared with the previous two weeks.
Few large fish
“We haven’t had a bad week, but today is much quieter. Not much demand. Some fish here and there. Less optimism about prices. So I think there will be a minimal increase – if any. We also have weaker currency. We hear China has other options – Chile and the Faroe Islands. There’s little large fish in Norway, so naturally they are sourcing cheaper fish elsewhere,” said another exporter.
“We were more positive this morning. It’s gone from hot to lukewarm. But it hasn’t been a bad week. Prices have risen quite strongly for two weeks in a row, and if there is an increase now it will be modest.”
The exporter sees prices around NOK 70 ($7.00/€6.02) in Oslo.
“At least for 3–4 kg. We thought we’d get a little more. There’s a difference of a couple of kroner between 3–4 and 4–5. And another two kroner on 5–6.”
That means NOK 70 ($7.00/€6.02), NOK 72 ($7.20/€6.19) and NOK 74 ($7.40/€6.36), delivered Oslo, for the main traded weight classes between three and six kilos.
Transport
“It’s still difficult with transport from Northern Norway when the trains aren’t running. The trucks that are moving are no cheaper. Nearly NOK 3 ($0.30/€0.26) per kilo. And this situation will most likely last through September.”
Trucks are often running empty from Southern to Northern Norway.
“You have to pay through the nose, NOK 70,000 ($7,000/€6,020) for a truck. A third sharp price rise – the market can’t take it,” the exporter added.
“Prices are a bit flat to downward, and we expect them to ease later in the week – back down from earlier this week,” said a trader.
“To farmers we see NOK 65 ($6.50/€5.59), NOK 67 ($6.70/€5.76), NOK 69 ($6.90/€5.93) in the north for 3–6 kg. 6+ is NOK 75 ($7.50/€6.45). Some are paying NOK 2 ($0.20/€0.17), NOK 2.50 ($0.25/€0.22) and NOK 3 ($0.30/€0.26) per kilo in freight from Northern Norway. Transport has been expensive with these train problems. All the delays on the railways have driven up prices. It’s caused a lot of trouble, especially for mid-week prices. Now more fish is coming, it’s stabilising,” he said.
“We’re completely dependent on freezing. And we need to drop NOK 5 ($0.50/€0.43) to make freezing viable. We depend on freezing, because a lot of fish is coming.”
He stressed this is not market-driven, but logistics-driven.
“You mustn’t confuse the two,” he underlined.
“It was higher mid-week, but came down again towards the end. Plant prices in the north are NOK 65 ($6.50/€5.59), NOK 68 ($6.80/€5.85), NOK 71 ($7.10/€6.11) for 3–6 kg. We pay NOK 2 ($0.20/€0.17) in freight. Some at NOK 1.75 ($0.18/€0.15), NOK 2 ($0.20/€0.17) and NOK 3 ($0.30/€0.26). Average maybe NOK 2,” said another exporter.
“Prices were higher earlier in the week, and then cooled. Logistics will improve next week with the trains, so I think more fish will reach the market.”
There is an uptick from last Friday, but a decline from mid-week.
“Fish in the sea is rising more than the transport cost. It’s stable, I’d say. Or an upward adjustment. Prices went up, reached a peak, and then calmed down. There’s a backlog of fish that has come in. In the north they’re holding back, securing transport. Fish in the sea is worth more. Nobody wants to buy fish that will be three days delayed,” said a buyer.
He sees the following prices FOB farmer:
NOK 65–66 ($6.50–6.60/€5.59–5.68) for 3–4 kg
NOK 67–68 ($6.70–6.80/€5.76–5.85) for 4–5 kg
NOK 70–72 ($7.00–7.20/€6.02–6.19) for 5–6 kg
6+ is NOK 75–85 ($7.50–8.50/€6.45–7.31), depending on what goes to China. “It has a life of its own. Normally, without China, I’d say NOK 75–77 ($7.50–7.70/€6.45–6.64). All depends on average size and availability. For Europe it’s NOK 72–75 ($7.20–7.50/€6.19–6.45) on large fish,” he said.
Stuck
“It’s not running smoothly,” said one farmer, exasperated.
He saw some fish stuck for several days on a siding in Sweden before re-entering the market on Thursday.
“In the last two to three weeks we’ve sent a double-digit number of empty trucks from the south. It costs extra. North-south balance: if we see significant growth in five to six years, there’s no need for more refrigerated trucks with food and mail going north. Now there’s much more that needs to go south than north.”
But prices are higher than in recent months:
“There’s some spread, but we’re at NOK 70–71 ($7.00–7.10/€6.02–6.11) on 3–4, NOK 73 ($7.30/€6.28) on 4–5, and 5–6 is NOK 75–76 ($7.50–7.60/€6.45–6.54),” he said.
