Atlantic salmon supply growth will turn negative in Q2 and Q3 2026, setting up a stronger price environment in the second half of the year, according to SEB analyst Sander Lie following last week’s Seafood Expo Global in Barcelona.
Global Atlantic salmon volumes rose 12% year-on-year in Q1 from an already high base, driven by favorable temperatures and near-absent biological disruptions. That volume surge has weighed on prices, with European reference prices averaging NOK 87/kg in Q1.
In Norway, SEB expects harvest volumes to fall 1% year-on-year in Q2 and 2.8% in Q3, once the 2024 generation of fish is fully harvested. Latest biomass data points to further contraction into 2027.
In Chile, March biomass figures showed a 3.7% contraction year-on-year in standing biomass. El Niño adds further downside risk: SEB cites a 60% probability of El Niño occurring in the next three months, and 25% probability of a strong event later in 2026. Historically, comparable events have caused double-digit supply contractions.
Demand is broadly resilient, SEB said, with China posting strong growth supported by e-commerce, rising processing capacity, and favorable freight economics from return European flights. Retail markets in France, Netherlands, Poland, Italy, and Spain are developing steadily, with low prices stimulating consumption.
The US is the exception. Tariff uncertainty, USD depreciation, and higher freight costs are all weighing on demand — pressures SEB expects to persist into 2027.
SEB maintains Buy recommendations on Mowi ASA and SalMar ASA, viewing SalMar as the preferred near-term play given volume upside, a favorable contract profile, and attractive valuation relative to peers. The bank sees Q2 consensus estimates at risk on the downside before a supply-driven recovery takes hold in H2.