Supply constraints underpin outlook.
ABG Sundal Collier said in a recent research note that it has raised its 2026 Atlantic salmon price forecast to NOK 86 (EUR 7.82) per kilo, up from NOK 83 (EUR 7.55), citing stronger-than-expected pricing in the second half of 2025.
The Norwegian investment bank now expects prices to rise 13% year on year in 2026, supported by global supply growth of just 1% against continued demand.
Improving biological conditions across key farming regions have also strengthened confidence in a price-led margin recovery after several years of production setbacks.
ABG Sundal Collier said earnings have been constrained since 2018 by biological challenges affecting volumes, realised prices and costs.
Recent improvements, combined with historically tight supply, are expected to drive a rebound. The bank points to three supporting factors: limited global supply growth, higher prices, and resilient demand, particularly from the United States and China.
Margins set to recover
The projected earnings growth reflects a low base, with 2025 margins close to levels last seen during the pandemic.
From that point, the bank sees scope for a sharp recovery, supported by tightening market conditions.
ABG Sundal Collier also highlights the medium-term investment case for salmon equities, given the combination of constrained supply and steady demand growth.
The outlook will depend on biological performance through the 2026 production cycle. Any renewed disease pressure or disruption to harvest volumes could alter the supply balance and price trajectory.