Arctic Securities has cut its 2026 salmon price forecast to EUR 6.95/kg, down from EUR 7.10/kg, with the Oslo Seafood Index already off roughly 11% year-to-date.
The reduction is primarily demand-driven, with higher transport costs linked to the Middle East conflict depressing buying activity, the brokerage said in a sector report dated 4 May 2026. The 2027 forecast was also trimmed, to EUR 7.42/kg from EUR 7.50/kg.
For Norwegian-krone-denominated producers, the impact is sharper. Arctic now models EUR/NOK at 11.0, versus a prior assumption of 11.7. That pushes the 2026 NOK price estimate to NOK 77.3/kg from NOK 83.2/kg — a 7% reduction — and the 2027 estimate to NOK 81.7/kg from NOK 88.0/kg.
EBIT estimates for NOK-denominated farmers, including SalMar ASA and Leroy Seafood Group, were cut roughly 14% for 2026 and 2027. For EUR-reporting companies Mowi ASA and Bakkafrost, the cut was around 6%. The difference is purely currency, Arctic said.
Arctic identifies feed price inflation as the primary forward risk. Fish meal and fish oil prices have begun rising following low catches in both the North Atlantic and Peru, the report states.
Arctic favours Mowi and SalMar for their cost leadership. It also flags Bakkafrost as well-positioned, citing the company’s large fish meal inventory in the Faroe Islands — provided it avoids significant biological events in Scotland.
Arctic estimates sit 5–10% below consensus for 2026 and broadly in line for 2027. The next catalyst to watch is the evolution of Peruvian and North Atlantic anchovy catches, which will determine whether feed cost pressure intensifies through the second half of 2026.