Handelsbanken has cut its 12-month target price on Bakkafrost to NOK 449 from NOK 519, maintaining a Hold rating ahead of the company’s Q1 2026 results.
Analyst Erik Cederberg cited weaker pricing dynamics and rising feed costs as the primary pressure points.
Global Atlantic salmon supply rose 14% year-on-year in Q1 2026, according to Kontali. Handelsbanken forecasts 5% volume growth for full-year 2026, and Cederberg flagged continued downside risk to spot prices if demand fails to keep pace. Demand from Asian markets has softened recently, which could further strain the supply-demand balance.
Two factors weigh specifically on Bakkafrost. The size premium for 6-7kg fish — historically a meaningful earnings driver — compressed to just 2% in Q4 2025. Rising fishmeal costs also threaten feed margins, given Bakkafrost’s above-average reliance on marine ingredients.
The company’s balance sheet is becoming stretched, Cederberg said, leaving limited buffer if earnings disappoint.
Handelsbanken estimates Q1 2026 operational EBIT of DKK 478 million, a 5% decline year-on-year, based on harvest volumes of 27,900 tonnes. Cederberg flagged only DKK 2 million in incident-based mortality costs for Scottish operations — well below expectations given the biological issues carried over from 2025.
That figure will be a key focus when Bakkafrost publishes its results. Whether the Scottish operations have stabilised, and whether the large-fish premium recovers meaningfully in Q2, will determine whether Handelsbanken’s cautious stance shifts.
