Fearnley Securities has cut its 2026 EBIT estimate for Grieg Seafood by 55% following the salmon farmer’s first-quarter results, lowering its target price to NOK 33 (€3.07) from NOK 37 (€3.44) per share while reiterating a Hold recommendation.
The bank said the weaker outlook reflected biological challenges, start-up costs linked to a new value-added processing facility, and one-off head office expenses.
Grieg’s revised 2026 cost guidance of NOK 67/kg (€6.23/kg) came in above Fearnleys’ previous estimate of NOK 62/kg (€5.77/kg) and above the company’s long-term target of NOK 60/kg (€5.58/kg), according to the bank.
Fearnleys said it now sits 56% below FactSet consensus on 2026 EBIT and expects analyst forecasts to move materially lower following the update.
For the second quarter, the broker forecast EBIT of NOK 29 million (€2.70 million), compared with FactSet consensus estimates of NOK 94 million (€8.74 million).
Harvest volume estimates for 2026 were reduced to 30,000 tonnes from 31,000 tonnes, although Fearnleys said higher expected costs were the main negative driver behind the downgrade.
The bank said 2027 was the earliest point at which Grieg’s standalone Rogaland operation could begin delivering its earnings potential.
Based on Fearnleys’ estimates, Grieg trades at 54 times expected 2026 earnings and 12 times expected 2027 earnings.
The bank said longer-term upside remains possible if Grieg achieves its targeted cost reductions, pointing to a 2028 earnings per share estimate of NOK 3.0 (€0.28), based on harvest volumes of 32,000 tonnes and a salmon spot price of NOK 89/kg (€8.28/kg).
However, with costs expected to remain elevated through 2026 and limited near-term catalysts, Fearnleys said its Hold recommendation reflected fair valuation based on 2027–2028 earnings expectations rather than near-term upside.
