Analysis warns US tariffs could squeeze Icelandic salmon exporters.
Icelandic salmon exporters are facing a tougher competitive environment in the United States following the introduction of new tariffs earlier this year, according to analysis by Anna Björk Theodórsdóttir, founder of Oceans of Data, published in Morgunblaðið.
On 5 April 2025, the US government imposed a 10 percent tariff on farmed salmon from Iceland. That levy was raised to 15 percent on 1 August, putting Iceland on the same footing as Norway and EU producers, though Canada continues to benefit from tariff-free access under the USMCA trade agreement.
Theodórsdóttir notes that Icelandic production has been volatile in the first half of the year. January volumes reached 7,043 tonnes, 41 percent higher than the same month in 2024, though output fell back in February and March before recovering again in April. Average weights climbed in March to 5.64 kg before slipping to 4.91 kg in April. Total production for the first six months of 2025 stood at just under 50,000 tonnes, up from 42,000 tonnes a year earlier.
Export prices to the US have fluctuated sharply. The average price of fresh whole salmon fell to just $5.30/kg in February, before recovering to $7.60/kg in March and $7.42/kg in April. Prices climbed further in May to $8.43/kg before easing to $7.85/kg in June, with the increase reflecting both the impact of tariffs and shifting market dynamics.
Despite these movements, US customs data suggest Iceland has carved out a relatively high-value position in the market. In the first half of 2025, Iceland exported 2,870 tonnes of salmon to the US at an average CIF price of $13.64/kg. By comparison, Chile shipped more than 108,000 tonnes at an average $13.15/kg, Norway supplied 42,475 tonnes at $13.73/kg, and Canada 36,760 tonnes at $14.21/kg under tariff-free conditions.
Theodórsdóttir argues that while Iceland has demonstrated strength in value creation, the tariff increase comes at a difficult moment. Rising costs mean margins are already narrow, and a fall in global salmon prices later in 2025 — as forecast by Kontali — would place further pressure on Icelandic producers.
She concludes that exporters must respond with clearer market strategies, stronger price transparency and greater emphasis on differentiation, including certification and further processing. In an environment of international uncertainty and shifting trade rules, she writes, success for Icelandic salmon will depend less on volumes than on the ability to generate value.
