Pareto cuts salmon price forecast on stronger supply growth.
Pareto Securities has lowered its full-year 2026 Atlantic salmon price estimate to NOK 80/kg (€7.20), down from NOK 82/kg (€7.38), citing stronger-than-expected supply growth and continued downside risk to the broader sell-side consensus of around NOK 85/kg (€7.65).
Global salmon supply increased by more than 12% in the first quarter of 2026, while FCA Oslo prices declined by only 3%. The relatively modest price movement was attributed in part to resilient demand in Asian markets.
Chilean supply grew by approximately 18% during the quarter, while Norwegian production is now expected to increase by 2% year on year in 2026, revised up from an earlier estimate of 1%. Pareto forecasts global supply growth of 3% for the year, placing it at the upper end of consensus expectations.
For the second quarter, Pareto expects prices to average around NOK 80/kg (€7.20), significantly below the current sell-side consensus of approximately NOK 90/kg (€8.10). Favourable seawater temperatures across key farming regions are expected to support continued volume growth in the near term.
Cost pressures and trade risks build
Rising prices for fishmeal and fish oil are pushing feed costs higher, prompting upward revisions to sector cost estimates for 2027.
At the same time, tariffs are beginning to disrupt trade flows, while escalating tensions in the Middle East could increase air freight costs. Higher logistics costs had previously supported pricing in Asian markets, raising uncertainty around demand dynamics going forward.
Pareto maintains HOLD recommendations on Mowi (target NOK 225 (€20.25)), Grieg Seafood (target NOK 74 (€6.66)), and Laksealg (target NOK 50 (€4.50)), citing the greatest risk to 2026 earnings estimates.
BUY recommendations are retained for SalMar (target NOK 600 (€54.00)) and Bakkafrost (target NOK 540 (€48.60)), where volume growth is expected to offset weaker pricing. Bakkafrost is forecast to exceed first-quarter operating EBIT consensus by 25%.
Pareto has also raised its target price for MAS to NOK 35 (€3.15) from NOK 27 (€2.43), shifting to a sum-of-the-parts valuation approach.
Looking further ahead, Pareto said a demand-led price recovery remains possible once supply growth moderates, with global volumes expected to increase by less than 1% in 2027 and prices recovering toward NOK 86/kg (€7.74).
