Prices retreat from last week’s highs.
The Norwegian salmon spot price is expected to settle around EUR 5.87/kg (USD 6.80/kg) this week, according to analysts. That marks a decline from the high NOK 60s reported last week, as the market corrects after a period of surprisingly strong supply. The big fish premium is reportedly returning this week, adding roughly EUR 0.36/kg (USD 0.42/kg) to larger sizes.
Norwegian seafood exports came in strong last week at 32,744 tonnes, up 18.4% year on year and 5.7% week on week. Demand for Norwegian salmon reached EUR 207 million, a 14% increase year on year and 6% higher week on week, driven in part by elevated fresh fillet prices. Year-to-date demand growth stands at 5.7%, while second-quarter growth is running at 7.7% year on year. Exports of frozen fillet jumped 54% week on week, and retail-oriented flows to Poland and Denmark remained solid. Analysts anticipate demand will moderate somewhat in the next weekly print, with lower prices bringing value growth closer to a more typical summer range of around 6%.
Vessel-tracking models suggest strong harvesting from all major Norwegian farmers during the second quarter. Analysts expect harvest volumes to exceed expectations across the board, with particular upside from the largest producers. The elevated supply is a key factor behind the price decline this week and may continue to weigh on prices in the near term.
Each week, SalmonBusiness gathers salmon price forecasts from industry analysts for the week ahead. Unless otherwise stated, prices refer to Superior 3–6 kg salmon, per kilo FCA Oslo, converted using the day’s average exchange rate.
